The federal deadline regarding reduced transportation emissions that’s expected to increase electric vehicle (EV) sales continues to creep closer. The pending changes to vehicle emissions limits are fueling ongoing debates regarding the feasibility of EVs due to the perceived lack of infrastructure, long charging times, high costs, and a mountain of uncertainty.

 

As with any new technology, there are early adopters, “wait and see” consumers, and late adopters. EVs are no different. The supporters are all in, but on the other end are those who are steadfast in their desire to remain with a gas-powered vehicle. And in between, there are a great many people who remain skeptical of EVs.

While the Biden administration has appeared to be operating under the “build it and they will come” principle, consumers aren’t so sure they’ll be able to arrive at their destination. And at the end of the day (or any time of day, really), people want certainty that they’ll get to where they want to go within a reasonable time frame.

Federal rule facts

On March 20, 2024, the EPA announced final national pollution standards for passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty vehicles for model years 2027 through 2032 and beyond. Although the final rule softens initial emissions requirements, it still reaches approximately 50% reductions over 2026 levels by 2032.

The standards in the new rule are set to apply to manufacturers’ entire fleet of new vehicles, meaning automakers still have the option to produce vehicles with higher emissions if they also offer enough EVs and/or hybrids to meet the emissions standards.

“That means over the next decade, automakers can continue to offer a range of vehicle types, but the ‘menu’ that's available to consumers will shift to be cleaner overall,” radio network NPR says.

The rule as written provides consumers with “unprecedented flexibility” in vehicle choices, the EPA states in a Fact Sheet about the final rule. Consumer options include not only EVs and hybrids but also more fuel-efficient gas-powered vehicles.

The issues

Auto dealers continue to push back against the rule.

“This rule greatly exceeds the current real-world consumer demand for EVs. Also, the rule projects that gas-powered vehicles (including hybrids and plug-in hybrids), now currently 92.9% of the market, could be reduced to 29% by 2032,” according to a July 25, 2024, article published by the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA). “Franchised car and truck dealers, with a nationwide network already in place, are essential to sell and service EVs. Dealers have promoted, and will continue to promote, electrification of America’s fleet with billions of dollars of their own capital already committed to investments in facilities, training and inventory. Despite the dealers’ efforts and investments, however, the EPA’s final rule remains far ahead of consumer demand. As a result, this rule is not achievable in the time frame provided and would severely limit the ability of consumers to choose a new vehicle that meets their budget and transportation needs.

The “NADA supports legislation that would disapprove of or stop funding the Administration’s light-duty de facto EV mandates.”

U.S. EV sales grew to a record 1.19 million last year—a 47% jump over the previous year, according to AP News. This number reflects a market share of 7.6% of new car sales. However, automakers experienced a sales slump late in the year, then hit another 34% rise in December.

“The auto industry cited lower sales growth in objecting to the EPA’s preferred standards unveiled last April as part of its ambitious plan to cut planet-warming emissions from passenger vehicles,” notes AP News. “The EPA said that under its final rule, the industry could meet the limits if 56% of new vehicle sales are electric by 2032, along with at least 13% plug-in hybrids or other partially electric cars, as well as more efficient gasoline-powered cars that get more miles to the gallon.”

Aside from last year’s rising EV sales, automakers cited “consumer hesitancy over battery range and insufficient charging infrastructure” as a reason to shift higher production capacity to hybrids instead of EVs, CBS News says.

Cost-prohibitive

With funding from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the EPA Clean School Bus Program provides $5 billion over 5 years (fiscal years (FYs) 2022 to 2026) to replace existing school buses with zero-emission and clean school buses.

However, at least one school district has declined to participate due to infrastructure costs.

“An Arkansas school district selected for a federal rebate to help fund the purchase of an electric school bus has declined to move forward with the purchase while another district selected for the program is trying to decide whether it can afford the purchase due to the high purchase and infrastructure costs that have posed a hurdle for [EV] adoption nationwide,” according to the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. “The Batesville School District -- which turned down its spot in the rebate program -- was due to receive $365,000 as part of the [EPA's] Clean School Bus Rebate Program for one electric school bus. The rebate program offered to provide a combined $11.03 million in rebates toward the purchase of 36 electric school buses in Batesville and three other selected Arkansas districts.

“However, the rebate would only partially cover the costs associated with purchasing the vehicle associated charging infrastructure -- leaving the district responsible for several tens of thousands of dollars in remaining cost. This proved to be unpopular with Batesville's residents, school district spokesperson Megan Renihan said.”

Some of the factors mentioned in the decision to decline to participate include:

• The program requires school districts to pay for the buses first, and then they’ll receive money from the federal program.
• The school district currently does its own bus maintenance, but electric buses would require maintenance from outside sources.
• Additional costs, such as for charging stations, aren’t covered by the federal rebate.
• There are higher budget costs associated with electric buses than with traditional school buses.

“According to an analysis run by the initiative in May 2023, before the current iteration of the clean bus rebate program, if a school district claims a $362,000 rebate for an electric bus -- which includes a $10,000 rebate for a charger -- then the total cost of ownership of that electric bus is around $208,000,” the Arkansas Democrat-Gazette continues. “Comparatively, it says that the total cost of operation for a diesel-powered bus is $414,000 -- including fuel, insurance and maintenance costs -- while it would be $530,000 for an electric bus if no rebates, tax credits or other cost offset is claimed.”

Pros and cons

As with any technology, EVs offer pros and cons. The pros, according to solar energy company EnergySage, are:

• Energy efficiency
• Reduced emissions
• Less maintenance

The cons include travel distance, charging time, and high costs.

“[EVs], on average, have a shorter range than gas-powered cars. Most models range between 60 and 120 miles per charge, and some luxury models reach 300 miles per charge,” EnergySage notes. “For comparison, gas-powered vehicles will average around 300 miles on a full gas tank, and more fuel-efficient cars get much higher driving ranges. This may be an issue when looking at [EVs] if you frequently take long trips. The availability of charging stations can make [EVs] less suitable for activities like road trips.

“Fueling an all-electric car can also be an issue. Fully recharging the battery pack with a Level 1 or Level 2 charger can take up to eighty hours, and even fast charging stations take 30 minutes to charge to 80 percent capacity. Electric car drivers must plan more carefully because running out of power can't be solved by a quick stop at the gas pump.”

But, although EVs cost more upfront, they save money over time due to fewer maintenance costs and fuel expenses.

“Also, while battery packs are more costly in EVs than conventional vehicles, they last much longer than the components of most combustion engines, and they come with 8–10-year warranties, so you're not likely to pay out of pocket for a replacement,” EnergySage adds. “EVs also have federal and sometimes state-specific incentives available to help reduce the initial purchase price.”

Without a warranty, EV batteries range from $6,500 to $20,000, EV information website Recurrent says.

Legal hurdles

The American Petroleum Institute (API), the National Corn Growers Association, the American Farm Bureau Federation, and six auto dealerships announced a federal lawsuit against the EPA in June 2024, according to business news site Quartz.

“The groups aim to stop a Biden administration emissions standard that mandates about 56% of new U.S. vehicle sales be electric by 2032.”

“‘Today, we are taking action to protect American consumers, U.S. manufacturing workers, and our nation’s hard-won energy security from this intrusive government mandate,’ said Ryan Meyers, the API’s general counsel, in a statement accompanying the announcement,” Quartz continues. The “EPA has exceeded its congressional authority with this regulation that will eliminate most new gas cars and traditional hybrids from the U.S. market in less than a decade. We look forward to making our case in court.”

“The International Energy Association has noted that more needs to be done to cut carbon and other greenhouse-gas emissions in order to mitigate the worst effects of climate change The standard has drawn consistent criticism from the oil industry since it was unveiled. The lawsuit makes good on a threat that the API made at the time.”

Political hurdles

There are also regulations set to take effect for heavy-duty vehicles.

157 lawmakers issued a letter to EPA Administrator Michael Regan regarding the final rule titled “Greenhouse Gas Emissions Standards for Heavy-Duty Vehicles – Phase 3.” Dated July 2, 2024, the letter demands that the “Biden administration overturn its de facto electric mandate on trucks, tractors, buses and semis,” states a press release issued by U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith, R-Miss.

“This final rule, which encompasses heavy-duty vehicles ranging from delivery trucks and school buses to tractors and semis, would disrupt the heavy-duty truck industry by forcing the broad adoption of heavy-duty zero emission vehicles on an extremely aggressive timeline, despite these vehicles currently being less than 1% of sales,” the lawmakers wrote. “According to a recent study, it would cost nearly $1 trillion in infrastructure investment alone to fully electrify the U.S. commercial fleet, which does not include the expense of purchasing new semis. Additionally, the cost for an electric semi-truck averages over $400,000 while a comparable diesel Class 8 truck costs around $180,000 – meaning electric trucks cost an average of 122% more than a normal semi.

“Our farmers and agricultural industry will be especially hurt by this new mandate. According to the latest agriculture census by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, there are 3,161,820 trucks (including pickups) on over 1.4 million farms and 3,784,743 tractors on over 1.5 million farms that would see higher equipment costs and tighter margins due to this misguided rule. These numbers also do not account for the small, independent truckers, trucking companies and truck dealerships throughout the U.S. that will be impacted. Not only would this rule harm consumers, but it would also exacerbate consolidation by effectively forcing our small trucking companies out of business that cannot afford this hasty transition to electric or hydrogen powered trucks,” the lawmakers added.

Then, there’s California

California regulations up the ante on those finalized by the federal government, mandating that all new passenger trucks and cars sold in the state be emission-free by 2035.

“As of now, Washington, Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, New York, Delaware, Maryland and D.C. have adopted the EV mandates—13 states plus D.C.,” states an article by EV website Green Car Reports. “That splits the U.S. vehicle market into two nearly equal portions. Connecticut and Maine have delayed adoption of the EV mandate portion, but they're expected to keep to it.”

California has been moving toward zero-emission vehicles since the early 1990s, according to the University of California (UC).

“Aside from a couple of flat years of sales between 2018 and 2020, sales on [EVs] in California have been rising since 2011. Today, one in four new cars sold in the state is an EV, said Dahlia Garas, program director at UC Davis’ Electric Vehicle Research Center,” the university says.

“To achieve the zero-emissions vehicle mandate, California will need about 15 times as many electric cars on the road as today. From an energy supply standpoint, state officials believe the state will have a capacity to keep all these cars charged with planned expansion of wind and solar power. That said, the rollout of [EVs] may strain the grid, especially if they are all charging at the same time, such as in the evening when people get home from work. In addition to needing a lot of electricity available at those times, that demand could exceed the capacity of local infrastructure, including neighborhood transformers. Utilities will need to upgrade much of this local equipment.”

Will it matter?

With it being an election year, many conservatives anticipate a change in the federal administration.

However, after staunchly criticizing the EV market for several years, Donald Trump recently shifted his rhetoric about the industry after receiving an endorsement from Elon Musk, The Guardian says.

“’I’m for electric cars, I have to be because Elon endorsed me very strongly,’ Trump, the Republican nominee for US president, told supporters. …”

During Trump’s previous administration, he successfully legally challenged California’s waiver that allows the Golden State to set more stringent emissions regulations and received a stay against the waivers. Trump’s previous administration also softened emissions regulations and removed the United States from the Paris Accord, which is an international treaty on climate change that was signed in 2016.

EVs are no different from any new technology. Many consumers are happy to give the technology a try. However, most want to see improvements in travel distance and more charging options before making the purchase.